Warriors clearly know their current status in the alliance. They are not blindly confident, but they think in a positive way. They still believe in their own strength and understand the spiritual challenges they pose to other teams in the league. They refused to give up, refused to give in, and refused to give warmth to their opponents.
They always believe that they can win every championship, but in the short term, there is still a long way to go to win this year. Judging from the team’s recent comments inner core, they may understand that this is the last february and the last time they can tell themselves-their champion gene still helps them win the playoffs.
In other words, this is their last shot.
This is what Curry wanted to convey during his recent interview. Because of his leg injury, he had to miss the last five games, and the all-star would have to take a break after the weekend. Curry, dream chasing, clay and Myers have reached a consensus. At present, the Warriors are 29 wins and 29 losses, on the edge of the playoffs, and only one week away from the last 24 regular season games.
They won the fourth championship in the past ten years in last June. They thought this season would be great, but so far it has not happened. The core players are one year older, and most of the young players have not grown up. If they want to have a chance to win the championship, they must be much better than the top 58 games.
Of course, the possibility still exists, but it has changed from pure belief in the past to a wish and hope.
“I know we are a different team than last year. I know we are facing different challenges, but I have proved that if everyone is healthy and we are very competitive in the playoffs, we have a chance to win any round of series. So we remain optimistic until everything comes.” Curry said in an interview recently.
Which Western opponent would want to meet warriors in the first two rounds? Never, but only if the Warriors keep healthy and then enter the playoffs. If possible, they should try their best to avoid exhausting themselves in this process. In the next few months, there are obviously many things to pay attention to, but the following are more noteworthy:
There is only one Timeline left.
What about the two timelines that have been discussed before? This two-line development plan has come to an end since the Warriors exchanged the 2020 Wiseman deal for their favorite Peyton. Even though little Peyton couldn’t fight because of the injury, they still kept him firmly, which further proved their idea that they only wanted to fight for the championship. In fact, the warrior sent Wiseman away, no matter what he changed back, in essence, it was a harvest.
However, Warriors have not talked about double-line development for some time. Since the day they chose Wiseman, they have actually taken risks. As a result, the risks are increasing due to the stagnant development of Wiseman. Cuminga is still a player worthy of attention. He has entered the rotation through his own efforts, but there are still many aspects to be improved. Moody’s words, I didn’t expect that he didn’t come out.
Then why don’t Warriors give young players much time until they play out?
In short, everything is because Warriors win the fourth championship faster than everyone expected. Remember, after the Warriors chose Wiseman, that is, the same day when Clay’s Achilles tendon broke, they achieved the worst record in the league that season. Then they missed the playoffs next season. When the team cannot move forward, they will often make more ambitious plans, because teams with poor records will do so. When you can’t make the playoffs, some worries at the game level are irrelevant.
But when the Warriors won the championship in 2022, it accelerated all the processes. Wiseman’s career is still stagnant, and kuchetang is worth competing for a championship this season. This means that if young players cannot contribute to victory, they will not deserve so much playing time. This puts more pressure on Wiseman, cuminga and Moody’s. As long as cuminga grows rapidly, Wiseman must be traded away. On the one hand, in order to reduce expenses, on the other hand, players who are helpful to the playoffs can be found.
“The current state and time node of the team are very difficult for Wiseman.” Cole said earlier.
Warriors still have to consider the future, but the only Timeline now must be closely associated with Curry. As long as Curry is still at its peak, Warriors must target the championship. When this becomes impossible, they will change this idea. This may happen in this offseason, but everyone can see Curry’s performance, which has not happened yet.
What will be the final ranking of Warriors?
The Warriors still have 24 regular season matches, 12 home games (22 wins and 7 losses, the best in the West), and 12 away games (7 wins and 22 losses, the third difference in the West). They are a 50% winning team with a record of 50%. Therefore, according to the previous performance, it can be speculated that the remaining record is 50%, and the regular season ended with 41 wins and 41 losses. If Curry continues to miss 8-10 games, this result is relatively optimistic.
Under the situation that the competition for seats in the Western playoffs is so fierce, unless there is a team riding out of the dust in the final stage, the Warriors are likely to enter the play-off with this record, which may be the eighth or ninth seed. They are currently ranked ninth, half ahead of the No. 10 seed Thunder and half behind the No. 8 seed Pelican. For the defending champions, the play-off is obviously not their first choice. But similarly, due to the absence of Curry, the qualification for the play-off is good.
If we want to avoid the play-off, the Warriors must achieve a record of at least 14 wins and 10 losses. We may soon know the result, because the four games after the All-Star weekend can explain the problem. They played the Lakers on February 24, and the next day they went back home to play the bad rockets, took a day off, and then played the Timberwolves at home. The Forest Wolf is currently the sixth in the West, leading the Warriors by one victory. After this, they played against the Blazers at home. Now they are tied for the eleventh place, and they are behind the Warriors for a victory.
Similarly, these four games may be in the absence of library, 3 wins and 1 loss will be very good results, 4 wins and 0 negative will be surprising, one win and three losses or worse will put Warrior management in a headache.
The greatest hope: Warriors still have the best five-player lineup
Cole has been adjusting the starting line for this period of time, but according to the data, the most conventional five-person starting line of warriors has always been the best in the league. Curry, dream chasing, clay, Wikins and Luni had a net efficiency of +21.9 in 331 minutes, which was the best among all the five groups who played for more than 150 minutes.
However, when Poole replaced Clay, the combination was still outstanding, with a net efficiency of +15.6 in 58 minutes. However, when Cole replaced Rooney with Poole, the net efficiency value in 155 minutes was-2.0.
Obviously, Warriors need not just a set of excellent five-person classes. This set of set 1 games can play 12-13 minutes at most. If you count the situation of Poole replacing clay, it may take about 15 minutes. The reason why Warriors win 29 and lose 29 is that other combinations are too tight, and the senior generals have not played well at the critical moment recently.
However, in recent weeks, Cole has made a stable rotation lineup. Poole, DiVincenzo, cuminga and green are the basis of the replacement lineup. When Curry was absent, Jerome played the role of organizer. Lamb’s performance is also good. At a certain node in the future, Warriors can still use little Peyton, although it is not as good as the combination of Poole, little PROTONIC, little Peyton and Belica last season, but not bad.
Cole can create a playoff rotation with excellent starting five and helpful role players, which we witnessed last year. Last season, the regular season of kuchyutangkoulu played less than one minute in total. As a result, in 172 minutes of playing together in the playoffs, the net efficiency value was +18.7.
Bad defense is undeniable.
Yes, when Curry is away, the attack of Warriors sometimes looks stiff. But he has missed 20 games this season and 18 games last season. But this season’s attack is actually better than last season in terms of data. (This season: 114.2 offensive efficiency, 12th league, last season: 112.1 offensive efficiency, 16th League)
Even though Poole sometimes played unstable and Wikins seldom performed well since he came back, their attack was still better than last season. However, their defense fell a lot. Defensive efficiency dropped from the second (106.6) of the league last season to the 20th (114.1) of the league now.
The reason why they were able to win four games in each round of the series last year was not only by the outside fire of splash and Poole, but more importantly, they were able to defend their opponents at critical moments. The Warriors played well every time they entered the finals before, but they did not show any defensive skills this season.
This is also why they chose Peyton on the trading deadline without really considering Sadik-Bay. Warriors want Peyton’s outside defense, not Bei’s comprehensive attack. Little Peyton will not play for nearly a month. Can the Warriors repair the defense without him? I’m not sure they can do it.
Warriors should also care about the future
Warriors may reshuffle, either this off-season or the next off-season. This summer, dream chasing will become a free agent. If Warriors can’t go too far in the playoffs, Lake bu will definitely not accept the salary commitment of more than US $0.42 billion next season (including tax).
Also, Miles’s contract expires in July, and whether he can stay is also a problem. They just traded Wiseman, which was intended to be the core of the future. Warriors hardly used Moody’s. This year’s first round show little Baldwin rarely played, and Curry suffered from injuries.
Therefore, Warriors must also consider the future, because their historical performance in the past ten years has always attracted much attention. Their window for the Championship may be closed, but who is sure? If they had not won the championship before, or even had no chance to compete for the championship, who would care about or care about what they are doing now?
Author: Tim Kawakami
Compilation: Fontaine
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